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Evaluating an Existing Position
As the Evaluation View opens you'll notice that there is considerably more
information displayed then when a new position was established in the first
part of this Tutorial. The current evaluation of the
open position occupies the upper portion of the Evaluation View, while the situation at
expiration for the new position being considered, is displayed in the bottom
portion.
The current components of the open
position are prominently displayed in a box just below the View menu. The number of shares
being held is shown adjacent to the Stock bid along with current date. This open position
includes covered
Calls, the description of which can be found in the box directly under the
share information box. The Call information includes:
the Call Option Ticker
- the Call Expiration Date
- the Call Strike
- Number of Open Contracts
- the Call Offer Quote
- Implied Volatility
- the Call Delta
If the open position
also included Puts, a second box with similar information related to the open
Put contracts would be displayed in a third box located to the right of the
Call information box.
Below these boxes is a single box
spanning the full width of the Evaluation View, that is divided into four
quadrant. The upper left hand portion displays the annualized rate of return
as of today (or the date displayed in the share information box above), for
two scenarios:
The first is labeled - 'The outcome today if: only the Stock is kept'. This alternative assumes that the Calls are bought to close as of today, while the Stock continues to be held. If this transaction were completed using the quotes displayed, an annualized rate of return of 26.6% for the sixty-eight days that this position has been open, would be realized.
- The second possible outcome as of today would be to simply unwrap and close the entire position. Based on the quotes displayed and the commission schedule, this would result in an annualized return of 26.6% in the sixty-eight days since the Stock was originally purchased. (Incidentally, these two percentile values being identical is a coincidence - the Stock commission is only ten cents different than the option commission.)
The annualized values posted in the lower left quadrant assume that the present Stock quote will remain the same until expiration, and measures the rate of return that would be attained in the time remaining till expiration. Again, the calculations are made for the two most likely outcomes at expiration:
- If the Stock is held onto at expiration while the Calls are simultaneously bought to close, an annualized rate of return of 0.0% would be realized for the five days remaining till expiration. In this particular situation, the option commission required to buy back the Calls is the same as the time value remaining in the Call offer (.2 remaining time value for the Call bid, minus the Call spread).
- In this case, the Stock price is above the Call strike, so the Stock will be called away at expiration if no action is taken. The only commission would be for the Stock being called away at the strike price. The .2 time value per contract is fully realized and exceeds the Stock commission, resulting in an annualized return of 51.4% in the five days remaining until expiration. Don't forget, this is an annualized rate covering only five days, so keep this high percentage value in perspective.
As you may have surmised - the values in the two right hand quadrant indicate:
- The number of days duration between when the position was originally established and 'now' (the date adjacent to the Stock bid displayed near the top of the View).
- The time value remaining in any open options - in this case the time value remaining in the Call offer. If there was an open Put in the position, the time value remaining in the Put bid would also be displayed.
- The number of days remaining between now and the expiration of the open Calls.
- The statistical probability that the Stock price will be at or above the Call strike at the time the Calls expire.
As
covered in the 'Getting Started' portion of this tutorial, the table in the
bottom portion of
the Evaluation View reflects one of the rolling alternatives at the
time of expiration. As evidenced by the three visible command buttons, there are
a total of three different possibilities to consider in rolling this position.
The bold face font on the command button indicates that the potential position
being displayed is rolling into the December - 32 1/2's. Click the appropriate
command button to view the probable results of rolling out to January - 30's:
or
rolling out and up to January - 32 1/2's:
When analyzing any of these choices,
always keep in mind that both the simple and annualized rates of return displayed in
the table in the lower portion of the View, are calculated back to the initial
inception of the position, not just for the duration of the present option strategy.
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